El Niño isn’t a season — it’s a warm-water pattern in the Pacific Ocean, like a fever that runs hottest in winter. Because the ocean takes months to heat the whole planet, its record-heat effect shows up the following year.
What Is a Super El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Undeniably occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise above average. The warming can alter atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide, influencing rainfall, temperatures, storms and droughts.
A “super” El Niño is gaining strength as we speak. If the climate phenomenon continues building at this pace, it could become the strongest El Niño we’ve seen in more than 75 years.
The current El Niño is already among the strongest observed for this time of year. NOAA says there is more than a 90 percent chance it will reach “very strong” status this fall and winter, and a 69 percent chance it could exceed the strength of all El Niño events on record dating back to 1950.
Other elements
There are other elements influencing our climate and weather patterns, like warming global temperatures. However, El Niño is not the only thing that affects these seasonal forecasts, but it is one of the big drivers of it. It gives much certainty to the forecast.
Experts Warn of Local Impacts
Experts have also warned that El Niño could bring sharply different local effects, with Texas more likely to see a cooler, wetter winter and Arizona facing a hotter, drier summer with heightened wildfire risk.
Joel Lisonbee, NOAA’s southern plains drought coordinator, told Texas Standard that Texas typically turns wetter from late fall into early spring during El Niño years. In Arizona, AZ Mirror reported that experts cautioned the state may be in for more record heat, deadly floods and intense wildfire activity this year. Also, forecasters warning that a strong El Niño could further amplify those risks.

Typical Super El Niño winter pattern over the U.S. — southward-shifted Pacific jet stream drives wetter conditions across the southern tier. Source: NOAA Climate.gov.
Winter Prediction
In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.
That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough.
Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest.
In an article for Severe Weather Europe, meteorologist Andrej Flis shares his predictions for winter 2026/2027. He expects significant snowfall deficits across much of the northern U.S., but above-average snowfall across most western, southern, central, and eastern states.
NOAA’s own guidance
What El Niño reliably does: its clearest, most dependable effects in the United States are in winter, not summer. Whereas a jet stream shifted south and east tends to bring a wetter southern tier and Southeast and a milder north. NOAA’s notes El Niño’s US influence is “weak during the summer and more pronounced starting in the late fall through spring.”
What it does not do: El Niño does not cause your local summer heatwave. Any single heatwave, storm or flood has many causes, and — in NOAA’s words — a single El Niño “increases the odds” of certain patterns rather than guaranteeing them.
It’s important to note that stronger El Niños increase the odds that expected global weather shifts will happen, but they do not guarantee any single local outcome. Every El Niño unfolds differently. These predictions are best guesses informed by historical outcomes, long-range forecast models, and projections for the timing and intensity of El Niño’s peak.
It’s important to be aware of these predictions are just predictions.
Stay tuned!
Related story: El Nino: Understanding Global Weather Changes – TUTORING YOU










