Category: Climate Related

El Nino: Understanding Global Weather Changes

El Niño is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather patterns for months.

There have been 27 other El Niños since 1950, with one happening on average every three to four years.

The last one happened from summer 2023 into early spring 2024.

It’s here

The much anticipated El Niño conditions have developed as of early June, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Waters in a zone of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator have warmed to more than 0.5 degrees Celsius above average. This, plus the circulation of winds and distribution of showers and storms over that area now “reflect the onset of El Niño conditions,” according to the CPC.

More strengthening ahead

This burgeoning El Niño will likely continue to intensify into a strong event, according to the CPC.

In fact, NOAA calculated a 63% chance it could eventually strengthen to a super El Niño.  Basically, a term some meteorologists use to describe those with temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. That super El Niño could arrive as soon as late summer or early fall.

However, these super El Niños are more rare.  There have been only five since 1950, the last occurring 11 years ago from 2015-16. They also occurred in 1997-98, 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1972-73. Super El Niños have also been documented in 1888-89 and 1877-78.

One for the record books?

Some computer forecast models suggest this El Niño could become one of the most intense on record.  For instance, the European model ensembles have trended warmer in their El Niño forecasts since spring.

Other models top it out either as strong (at least 1.5 degrees above average) or super, but not necessarily record breaking.

What are the potential impacts?

First, some disclaimers.

El Niño (and its counterpart, La Niña) is only one influence on the global weather pattern. Also, every El Niño is different, much like every hurricane can have its own idiosyncrasies.

But, in general, the stronger the El Niño, the more likely it will impact global weather.

Here are some of those potential impacts.

Hurricane season

A stronger El Niño tends to produce more sinking air and stronger wind shear in parts of the Atlantic Basin, both hostile to hurricanes.

So, in general, most stronger El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons are quieter than average. That’s not always the case, as the 2023 season illustrated.

Meanwhile, eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Niños.

Winter

In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.

That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough.

Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest.

Global precipitation

El Niño’s impacts typically extend around the globe. For example, parts of Africa, India, Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, the Caribbean and northern South America trend markedly drier during El Niño.

On the other hand, warm water and lighter trade winds typically sets the table for heavier rain in parts of Ecuador and Peru. Parts of eastern Africa, central Asia, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay are also usually wetter than average during El Niño.

Global temperatures

One impact we’re highly confident about is a spike in global temperatures during this El Niño. At the risk of oversimplifying, all this extra equatorial Pacific Ocean heat is released into the atmosphere, and all large swaths of drier conditions allow plentiful sunshine to heat the surface.

The previous super El Niño crushed previous global temperature records in 2015 and 2016. Those two years remain among the top 10 warmest years for the planet, all of which have occurred since 2015.

Given last year was the planet’s third warmest year, it seems like a slam dunk that new heat records will be set in 2026, possibly again in 2027.

From a climate change angle, this is worrisome.

A December 2025 study found super El Niño events can drive sudden “climate regime shifts” in both temperatures and precipitation, and that this effect could be increasing in a warming world.

Source:  weather.com©

Graphic:  travelandtourworld.com

Related reading:  El Nino is Real – TUTORING YOU

What are Blizzards Exactly?

In the United States, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a severe snowstorm characterized by strong winds causing blowing snow that results in low visibilities.

The difference between a blizzard and a snowstorm is the strength of the wind, not the amount of snow. To be a blizzard, a snowstorm must have sustained winds or frequent gusts that are greater than or equal to 56 km/h (35 mph) with blowing or drifting snow which reduces visibility to 400 m or 0.25 mi or less and must last for a prolonged period of time—typically three hours or more. Resulting in:

Here is more blizzard info:

Source: oldfarmersalmanac©

6 things you shouldn’t leave in your car in freezing temperatures

Do you keep your sunglasses in the car? You might want to take them out until it warms up.

Just like with extreme heat, you shouldn’t leave certain things in your car during subzero weather.

Freezing temperatures from a harsh arctic blast are expected to affect nearly 300 million Americans across most of the continental U.S. in the coming days, according to the National Weather Service.

© george frey, AFP via Getty Images

Aerosol cans

Extreme temperatures can cause aerosol cans to “become unstable” and potentially break or explode, according to Capital One Auto Navigator.

Canned beverages and foods

Canned goods that freeze can present health risks, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA says cans can swell if the food inside expands when its frozen — or because of a bacteria — so you should discard them.

Cans that are not swollen but have thawed out are also unsafe and should be discarded, per USDA.

Beverages can also expand inside their containers when frozen, leading to cracks or breakage.

Eggs

Eggs should not be frozen in their shells, USDA says.

“If an egg accidentally freezes and the shell cracked during freezing, discard the egg,” the agency said on its website. “Keep any uncracked eggs frozen until needed; then thaw in the refrigerator.”

Electronics

Leaving electronics, like your cell phone or tablet, in a freezing car can impact how they function, USA TODAY reported.

Some manufacturers − like Apple and Samsung − recommend you don’t expose products to extreme temperatures at all, since most devices work best when used at temperatures above 32 degrees.

Medications

Medicine is another item that should not be frozen.

When medications do freeze accidentally, there’s no visual indicators that they’re still safe to take, according to Massachusetts-based Baystate Health.

“So even if you thaw it out, it’s best to get it replaced than to take the risk that it’s ineffective or even dangerous,” the health system said on its website.

In general, any liquid medication in a “suspended state” will likely be negatively affected if its frozen, according to AARP.

AARP recommends reaching out to your provider or pharmacist if you have questions on your medication’s storage.

Loved ones

This should be obvious. But it’s worth noting that children and elderly people can be more susceptible to hypothermia at cold temperatures, with symptoms such as shivering, confusion and exhaustion, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. So even limited amounts of time in an unheated vehicle could be dangerous. The same goes for pets.

Source: This article originally appeared in Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Autumn Homeowner To-Do Tips

Regular home maintenance not only extends the life of major mechanical systems and appliances, but can also reduce your home’s energy costs. Here are some simple chores that any homeowner can handle in the autumn. 

Clean Your Gutters Every Fall

Let’s face it, we don’t know of a single homeowner that likes cleaning their gutters. It’s an awful, stinky, slimy job. But, one thing’s for sure, if you don’t clean them, they’ll clog up and you’ll wind up with water in your basement or ice dams in winter. Somebody’s got to do it, and it’s either you or a gutter cleaning professional.

If you’re determined to DIY, at least invest in the right gutter cleaning tools to make the job a bit less messy and time-consuming. Buy a gutter cleaning extension pole and attach it to your garden hose. Then extend it up to the gutter and flush the debris over to the downspout. Or, if you have to use a ladder to get to your gutters, scoop more crud faster with a specially designed gutter scoop. Want to reduce gutter cleaning frequency or eliminate it altogether? Invest in gutter leaf guards. 

 

 

Clean Soffit Vents Every Fall

Attics need proper ventilation, especially in winter. But plugged soffit vents can dramatically reduce air movement, causing hot spots that turn into ice dams. You can avoid costly roof and ceiling damage by simply blowing out your soffit vents every fall. And yes—any homeowner can do it. All you need is a ladder, a small air compressor with hose and nozzle and a dust mask. Locate the ladder under each soffit vent and shoot a blast of air into the vent. That’ll blow any loose insulation out of the way and open the vents for unrestricted airflow.

 

 

Check Your Sump Pump Every Fall

What good is a sump pump if it doesn’t pump when you need it most? Checking sump pump operation is something any homeowner can do. Just pour a few buckets of water into the sump pit until you hear it click on and start pumping. If you don’t hear the click, check the circuit breaker or GFCI outlet first, then the sump pump float switch. If you’ve got power but no pumping action, it’s time for a new sump pump.

Helpful fall tips from: familyhandyman.com©

 

Mother Nature’s Weather Makers

 

Mother Nature’ is a way of personifying nature and referring to nature as a ‘mother’ because nature is life-giving like a mother. It is not considered an actual person. Its origins may stem from Greek Mythology and the story of Demeter who is a goddess related to nature.

In North America, we are influenced by certain weather patterns.  The Old Farmer’s almanac describes the interaction of ocean waters and the atmosphere, and how it affects our weather.

 

 

Blood Moon 2022

Early Tuesday, some lucky Americans caught a glimpse of a total lunar eclipse – a phenomenon that won’t happen for another three years. 

The eclipse was also visible in Asia, Australia and the Pacific.

Here are two photos of the moon viewed by the Chinese.

The moon rises behind a corner tower along the outer walls of the Forbidden City during a lunar eclipse in Beijing, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. © Mark Schiefelbein, AP

Close-up of the moon rising behind a corner tower along the outer walls of the Forbidden City. © Mark Schiefelbein, AP

7 Ways to Lower Your Heating Bill

Is your house and budget ready for winter weather? You’re probably familiar with the basic ways to prep a house for winter—adding caulking, weather stripping, and extra insulation to keep the cold air out. But, good news, there are more ways to conserve energy and get a lower heating bill. Here are a few recommendations:

1) Use a humidifier.

Humidifiers are not heaters, but they will help your home feel more comfortable and warmer in the winter. Heating systems dry out the air inside your home. A humidifier will restore moisture, which traps the heat in the air, making the air feel warmer longer. Increasing indoor humidity in winter makes your home feel cozy, so you can adjust your thermostat to a lower setting. Depending on your needs, you can choose a whole-house system or a portable humidifier.

2) Move your couch and other furniture.

Sitting in front of a warm, crackling fireplace feels great. Placing furniture in front of the fireplace, wood burning stove, or radiator may warm you and your comfy chair, but it blocks the warm air from heating the rest of the room. Group your furniture so the warm air circulates freely across and around the room.

3) Get a programmable thermostat.

You can save a lot of money with a programmable thermostat for your HVAC unit. While you don’t want to turn off your central heat when no one is home, you can program it to suit your schedule, lowering it several degrees while you’re away and increasing the heat to normal shortly before you return home. Automatically turning down the thermostat at night helps you sleep better and reduces your winter energy bills too. According to the US Department of Energy you can reduce heat loss and save as much as 10% a year on heating costs by setting the thermostat back 7 to 10 degrees from its normal setting for eight hours a day.

In winter, lower interior temperatures reduce heat loss, and increase energy savings. In addition to scheduling and monitoring the indoor temperature, you can also check humidity levels, air filter quality and energy usage with a programmable thermostat. Take it to the next level of convenience with a Smart thermostat that connects to your home internet to give you remote access via your smartphone.

4) Install windbreak features to lower your heating bill.

There are things you can do outside of your house to reduce energy consumption indoors. Adding one or more winter windbreaks to your landscape—either structural or botanical—helps lower the wind chill and your heating costs. Depending on the space you have available, certain items can break the cold winds from directly hitting the house. An effective windbreak blocks wind gusts near the ground and redirects them up and over the house. Winter windbreaks also help prevent snow drifts from piling up around the house. Here are some examples:

  • a privacy fence
  • a lattice trellis with climbing vines
  • a line of evergreen trees or a row of hedges

The US Department of Energy advises planting trees a distance from your home between two to five times the mature height of the trees. Allow extra grow space when planting shrubs or hedges so there will be at least one foot of space between your house and the mature plants.

5) Get a heated ceiling fan.

You may be familiar with the old trick of reversing ceiling fan blades to force heated air downward in winter, but you can take this one step further by installing a fan with a built-in heater. A ceiling fan with a ceramic heating element may take the chill out of a room that never seems to get warm—especially rooms with high ceilings. These fans will delay your central heating system from kicking on, thus reducing energy use.

6) Use a chimney balloon.

Many people think of windows and doors, yet an unsealed chimney can be a major source of heat loss in a house. If your house has a fireplace that is rarely used, you can easily seal out downdrafts and prevent the heat from going up your chimney with an inflatable fireplace plug or chimney balloon. Both chimney draft stoppers block unwanted drafts, reduce heat loss and energy consumption. They are available at home improvement stores.

7) Get a home energy audit.

A home energy audit locates where your house is losing heat and energy. It suggests ways you can do to improve your home, making it more efficient, safe, and comfortable.

Article by Deborah Tukua

Source: 7 Ways To Lower Your Heating Bill – Farmers’ Almanac (farmersalmanac.com)